COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope?
We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus which incorporates adherence to disease prevention. The major results of this study are: First, we determined optimal infection coefficients such that high levels of coronavirus transmission are prevented. Secondly, we have found th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Botswana International University of Science & Technology
2022
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.11145/j.biomath.2021.03.117 http://hdl.handle.net/11408/4694 |
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| author | Machingauta, Mandidayingeyi H. Lungu, Bwalya Lungu, Edward M. |
| author_facet | Machingauta, Mandidayingeyi H. Lungu, Bwalya Lungu, Edward M. |
| author_sort | Machingauta, Mandidayingeyi H. |
| collection | DSpace |
| description | We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus which incorporates adherence to disease prevention. The major results of this study are: First, we determined optimal infection coefficients such that high levels of coronavirus transmission are prevented. Secondly, we have found that there exists several optimal pairs of removal rates, from the general population of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectives respectively that can protect hospital bed capacity and flatten the hospital admission curve. Of the many optimal strategies, this study recommends the pair that yields the least number of coronavirus related deaths. The results for South Africa, which is better placed than the other sub-Sahara African countries, show that failure to address hygiene and adherence issues will preclude the existence of an optimal strategy and could result in a more severe epidemic than the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. Relaxing lockdown measures to allow individuals to attend to vital needs such as food replenishment increases household and community infection rates and the severity of the overall infection. |
| format | Article |
| id | ir-11408-4694 |
| institution | My University |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Botswana International University of Science & Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ir-11408-46942022-06-27T13:49:06Z COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope? Machingauta, Mandidayingeyi H. Lungu, Bwalya Lungu, Edward M. Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus which incorporates adherence to disease prevention. The major results of this study are: First, we determined optimal infection coefficients such that high levels of coronavirus transmission are prevented. Secondly, we have found that there exists several optimal pairs of removal rates, from the general population of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectives respectively that can protect hospital bed capacity and flatten the hospital admission curve. Of the many optimal strategies, this study recommends the pair that yields the least number of coronavirus related deaths. The results for South Africa, which is better placed than the other sub-Sahara African countries, show that failure to address hygiene and adherence issues will preclude the existence of an optimal strategy and could result in a more severe epidemic than the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. Relaxing lockdown measures to allow individuals to attend to vital needs such as food replenishment increases household and community infection rates and the severity of the overall infection. 2022-03-15T10:42:19Z 2022-03-15T10:42:19Z 2021 Article https://doi.org/10.11145/j.biomath.2021.03.117 http://hdl.handle.net/11408/4694 en Biomath;Vol. 10; No. 1 open Botswana International University of Science & Technology |
| spellingShingle | Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic Machingauta, Mandidayingeyi H. Lungu, Bwalya Lungu, Edward M. COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope? |
| title | COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope? |
| title_full | COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope? |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope? |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope? |
| title_short | COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope? |
| title_sort | covid-19 changing the face of the world. can sub-sahara africa cope? |
| topic | Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic |
| url | https://doi.org/10.11145/j.biomath.2021.03.117 http://hdl.handle.net/11408/4694 |
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