The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe
The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer...
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| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2021
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073432 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0073432 http://hdl.handle.net/11408/4362 |
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| author | Kutywayo, Dumisani Chemura, Abel Kusena, Winmore Chidoko, Pardon Mahoya, Caleb |
| author_facet | Kutywayo, Dumisani Chemura, Abel Kusena, Winmore Chidoko, Pardon Mahoya, Caleb |
| author_sort | Kutywayo, Dumisani |
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| description | The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. |
| format | Article |
| id | ir-11408-4362 |
| institution | My University |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science |
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| spelling | ir-11408-43622022-06-27T13:49:06Z The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe Kutywayo, Dumisani Chemura, Abel Kusena, Winmore Chidoko, Pardon Mahoya, Caleb Agricultural commodities The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. 2021-06-04T09:24:35Z 2021-06-04T09:24:35Z 2013 Article 1932-6203 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073432 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0073432 http://hdl.handle.net/11408/4362 en PLoS ONE;Vol. 8; No. 8 open Public Library of Science |
| spellingShingle | Agricultural commodities Kutywayo, Dumisani Chemura, Abel Kusena, Winmore Chidoko, Pardon Mahoya, Caleb The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe |
| title | The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe |
| title_full | The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe |
| title_fullStr | The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe |
| title_short | The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (monochamus leuconotus p.) in zimbabwe |
| topic | Agricultural commodities |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073432 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0073432 http://hdl.handle.net/11408/4362 |
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