Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia
Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicaities that depend on local micro climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium s...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Research
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-87647-4.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11408/4657 |
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| Summary: | Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicaities that depend on local micro climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms
to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and
soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined
model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses
in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality
coffee sector and area-specifc adaptation measures are required to build resilience. |
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